The move away from plastic packaging has been building for years. But in 2025 and 2026, three distinct forces have converged in a way that's accelerating the timeline for a lot of brands — some of whom are moving faster than they expected to.
Understanding what's driving the shift, and what it actually takes to make the conversion, can help brands move deliberately rather than reactively.
Force One: EPR Regulations Are Creating Hard Deadlines
Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) legislation assigns financial responsibility for end-of-life packaging management to the brands that put packaging into commerce. Seven US states — California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington — have enacted packaging EPR laws, and Oregon and Colorado are already collecting producer fees. Canada has national EPR frameworks already in operation. The EU's Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation is setting strict recyclability thresholds that will affect any brand selling into European markets.
The practical effect for brands is this: packaging that scores poorly on recyclability assessments will either face higher EPR fees, be required to change, or both. Plastic packaging — particularly multi-layer, mixed-material, or hard-to-recycle formats — tends to score poorly. Paperboard packaging, by contrast, is broadly recognized as recyclable in most EPR frameworks and scores well on the assessments that determine fee levels.
For brands with products sold in multiple EPR-regulated markets, the incentive to convert from plastic to paperboard is increasingly financial, not just reputational.
Force Two: Resin Costs Are Rising — and Volatile
The cost of plastic resin is tied directly to oil prices, which are in turn affected by geopolitical events, production decisions by major oil-producing nations, and global demand fluctuations. The ongoing instability in the Middle East — including developments involving Iran and their downstream effects on oil markets — has added a new layer of volatility to resin pricing in 2025 and 2026.
Paperboard, by contrast, is priced on fiber markets that are more stable and more domestically controlled for North American buyers. For brands that are cost-modeling their packaging over a multi-year horizon, the volatility argument for moving away from petroleum-based packaging is becoming increasingly compelling — independent of the sustainability rationale.
"For brands cost-modeling their packaging over a multi-year horizon, the volatility argument for moving away from petroleum-based packaging is becoming increasingly compelling."
Force Three: Consumer Expectations Have Shifted Durably
Consumer preference for paper-based packaging over plastic has been documented consistently in research for several years now. What's changed is that this preference has moved from a differentiator to a baseline expectation in many product categories. In food, personal care, and household products, plastic packaging that could easily be replaced with paperboard is increasingly a liability at retail — particularly with younger consumer demographics.
This doesn't mean every plastic package should become a folding carton. But for products where the packaging function can be served by paperboard — containment, protection, brand presentation, filling line compatibility — the consumer preference argument for making the switch has strengthened considerably.
What the Conversion Actually Involves
The practical question for brands evaluating a plastic-to-paperboard conversion is: what does this actually take? The answer depends heavily on the specific application, but here are the factors that matter most:
Product compatibility. Paperboard is not appropriate for every product. Applications requiring moisture barriers, oxygen barriers, or direct contact with wet or oily products require specific substrate and coating solutions. Some applications that currently use plastic packaging can be served by coated or treated paperboard; others genuinely cannot. An honest supplier will tell you the difference.
Substrate selection. Not all paperboard is equivalent. SBS (Solid Bleached Sulfate) is the premium choice for brand-forward applications requiring maximum print quality. CUK (Coated Unbleached Kraft, also called SUS or Customkote) offers superior moisture resistance for cold chain and food applications. CRB (Coated Recycled Board, sometimes called CCNB) provides a cost-efficient, high-recycled-content option for sustainability-focused programs. The right substrate depends on your product's specific requirements.
Filling line compatibility. If your product currently fills into plastic containers on automated equipment, the transition to folding cartons requires dieline engineering reviewed against your specific filling line specs. Carton structure, tolerance windows, and erection characteristics all need to be validated before production. This is a solvable problem in most cases — but it requires a supplier willing to do the engineering work upfront.
Lead time expectations. Plastic injection-molded or thermoformed packaging can sometimes be produced in shorter timeframes than folding cartons for initial tooling and setup. Plan for a longer onboarding process for the first run of a new folding carton program — typically 8–14 weeks from approved dieline to first shipment for a domestic supplier, depending on complexity.
Graph-Pak specializes in folding cartons — offset-printed paperboard packaging for food, beverage, frozen, health and wellness, household, hardware, and consumer goods applications. We can help you evaluate whether a paperboard solution works for your specific application, provide substrate samples, and engineer a dieline against your filling line. We don't provide regulatory or legal counsel on EPR compliance — for that you'll need a compliance consultant familiar with the specific regulations in your markets. What we can do is provide the material composition documentation your compliance team will need.
Is Paperboard Right for Your Application?
The honest answer is: it depends. Paperboard is the right choice for a very wide range of consumer packaging applications — and the economics and regulatory environment are making it the right choice for more applications every year. But it isn't universally applicable, and a supplier who tells you it is probably isn't giving you the full picture.
If you're evaluating a plastic-to-paperboard conversion, the best starting point is a conversation with a manufacturer who will tell you honestly what works and what doesn't — and provide samples so you can evaluate the physical product before committing. That's how we prefer to work at Graph-Pak. Call us at (847) 451-7400 or request a sample kit at graphpak.com.
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